Rockford IceHogs at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Rockford IceHogs

1:4

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

RFDTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

46%54%

xG: 2.72.8
High danger: 44
Chances: 910
Shots: 3228

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal28

9Scoring chances10

4High-danger chances4

2.69Expected goals2.75

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–11	3–5	1–0	0.9–1.0
2nd	16–5	4–1	3–1	1.3–0.5
3rd	6–12	2–4	0–3	0.5–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 31
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.69
GSAx: +1.69

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.75
GSAx: -1.25

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 11:48Matěj Blümel (0–1)medium · 10 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 3:07Penalty
2nd 6:02Antti Saarela (1–1)medium · 30 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 9:37Penalty
2nd 17:39Penalty
2nd 17:39Penalty
2nd 18:59Penalty
3rd 2:23Riley Damiani (1–2)low · 30 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 4:07Mavrik Bourque (1–3)low · 51 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 15:37Penalty
3rd 15:37Curtis McKenzie (1–4)high · rebound · 14 ft · beat Drew Commesso