AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, January 6

Syracuse Crunch at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Syracuse Crunch
6:3
Final
Toronto Marlies

The sheet

SYRTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
32%68%
xG
2.34.2
High danger
35
Chances
1013
Shots
2440

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TOR above the lineSYR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal40
10Scoring chances13
3High-danger chances5
2.33Expected goals4.22

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–93–31–00.7–0.6
2nd9–212–80–50.7–2.8
3rd8–105–22–01.0–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TOR−2−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TOR212:08 of the 3rd7:526:12+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins
Shots faced
40
Saves
37
Allowed
3
xGA
4.22
GSAx
+1.22
Keith Petruzzelli
Shots faced
24
Saves
18
Allowed
6
xGA
2.33
GSAx
-3.67

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:34Penalty
  • 1st 1:34Penalty
  • 1st 3:40Penalty
  • 1st 6:43Joseph Blandisi (0–1)low · 40 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 1st 13:32Penalty
  • 1st 14:40Gabriel Dumont (1–1)5v4 · high · 31 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli
  • 1st 15:42Penalty
  • 1st 17:41Nick Abruzzese (1–2)5v4 · medium · 27 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 2nd 0:40Penalty
  • 2nd 0:40Penalty
  • 2nd 6:08Jack Finley (2–2)low · 36 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli
  • 2nd 9:43Penalty
  • 2nd 18:17Penalty
  • 3rd 1:08Penalty
  • 3rd 3:23Joe Carroll (3–2)medium · 25 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli
  • 3rd 4:59Joe Carroll (4–2)low · 47 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli
  • 3rd 5:01Penalty
  • 3rd 9:50Penalty
  • 3rd 14:13Kieffer Bellows (4–3)low · 38 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 15:53Cole Koepke (5–3)low · 31 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli
  • 3rd 16:43Penalty
  • 3rd 19:54Cole Koepke (6–3)empty net · low · 29 ft · beat Keith Petruzzelli