AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, January 6

Hartford Wolf Pack at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Hartford Wolf Pack
5:3
Final
Hershey Bears

The sheet

HFDHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
63%37%
xG
3.52.7
High danger
65
Chances
148
Shots
2925

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HER above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal25
14Scoring chances8
6High-danger chances5
3.49Expected goals2.74

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–106–33–21.4–1.0
2nd11–95–43–31.5–1.5
3rd8–63–10–00.6–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HER−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HER116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Clay Stevenson
Shots faced
28
Saves
24
Allowed
4
xGA
3.48
GSAx
-0.52
Louis Domingue
Shots faced
25
Saves
22
Allowed
3
xGA
2.74
GSAx
-0.26

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 7:56Penalty
  • 1st 11:12Penalty
  • 1st 11:30Jake Leschyshyn (1–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 1st 14:08Penalty
  • 1st 14:08Penalty
  • 1st 14:08Penalty
  • 1st 17:58Garrett Roe (1–1)high · 10 ft · beat Louis Domingue
  • 1st 19:43Penalty
  • 1st 19:43Penalty
  • 1st 19:56Penalty
  • 2nd 1:37Jimmy Huntington (1–2)5v4 · grade A · 14 ft · beat Louis Domingue
  • 2nd 2:16Henrik Rybinski (1–3)grade A · 12 ft · beat Louis Domingue
  • 2nd 12:33Matthew Robertson (2–3)medium · 18 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 2nd 16:57Connor Mackey (3–3)low · 41 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 2nd 17:15Penalty
  • 3rd 0:23Brett Berard (4–3)medium · 23 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 3rd 18:02Penalty
  • 3rd 18:17Jake Leschyshyn (5–3)empty net · low · 156 ft
  • 3rd 19:32Penalty
  • 3rd 19:32Penalty
  • 3rd 19:32Penalty