AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, January 6

Colorado Eagles at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Colorado Eagles
0:5
Final
Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

COLMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
22%78%
xG
2.84.1
High danger
39
Chances
816
Shots
2638

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MIL above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal38
8Scoring chances16
3High-danger chances9
2.75Expected goals4.08

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–144–73–11.3–1.6
2nd10–134–40–31.0–1.3
3rd7–110–50–50.4–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

COL−40:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
COL40:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.012 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Justus Annunen
Shots faced
38
Saves
33
Allowed
5
xGA
4.08
GSAx
-0.92
Yaroslav Askarov
Shots faced
26
Saves
26
Allowed
0
xGA
2.75
GSAx
+2.75

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:17Penalty
  • 1st 9:49Zach L’Heureux (0–1)grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Justus Annunen
  • 1st 11:37Penalty
  • 1st 15:26Liam Foudy (0–2)medium · 163 ft · beat Justus Annunen
  • 1st 18:15Penalty
  • 2nd 1:39Fedor Svechkov (0–3)high · 16 ft · beat Justus Annunen
  • 2nd 6:07Penalty
  • 2nd 14:52Egor Afanasyev (0–4)high · 11 ft · beat Justus Annunen
  • 2nd 18:29Penalty
  • 3rd 1:00Penalty
  • 3rd 6:31Penalty
  • 3rd 6:31Penalty
  • 3rd 6:31Penalty
  • 3rd 10:51Carson Gicewicz (0–5)low · 41 ft · beat Justus Annunen