AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, January 6

Tucson Roadrunners at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Tucson Roadrunners
4:0
Final
Chicago Wolves

The sheet

TUCCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
87%13%
xG
2.71.1
High danger
41
Chances
113
Shots
3019

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CHI above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal19
11Scoring chances3
4High-danger chances1
2.69Expected goals1.06

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–64–11–00.7–0.3
2nd16–55–03–01.7–0.2
3rd6–82–20–10.3–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CHI−40:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CHI40:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.012 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Keith Kinkaid
Shots faced
30
Saves
26
Allowed
4
xGA
2.69
GSAx
-1.31
Dylan Wells
Shots faced
19
Saves
19
Allowed
0
xGA
1.06
GSAx
+1.06

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:26Milos Kelemen (1–0)high · 9 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
  • 1st 2:06Penalty
  • 1st 4:45Penalty
  • 1st 10:57Penalty
  • 1st 13:49Travis Barron (2–0)medium · 25 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
  • 1st 16:59Penalty
  • 2nd 2:14Penalty
  • 2nd 3:45Penalty
  • 2nd 8:57John Leonard (3–0)medium · 7 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
  • 2nd 13:40Penalty
  • 2nd 16:42Penalty
  • 2nd 17:29Victor Söderström (4–0)5v4 · low · 67 ft · beat Keith Kinkaid
  • 2nd 19:38Penalty
  • 3rd 3:50Penalty
  • 3rd 6:29Penalty
  • 3rd 11:04Penalty
  • 3rd 17:31Penalty