AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, January 6

Rockford IceHogs at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Rockford IceHogs
5:3
Final
Texas Stars

The sheet

RFDTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
31%69%
xG
3.74.2
High danger
47
Chances
1823
Shots
3031

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TEX above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal31
18Scoring chances23
4High-danger chances7
3.66Expected goals4.15

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–103–81–30.7–1.6
2nd12–1110–72–21.8–1.4
3rd12–105–81–21.2–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TEX−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TEX215:01 of the 3rd4:594:59+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mitchell Weeks
Shots faced
31
Saves
28
Allowed
3
xGA
4.15
GSAx
+1.15
Rémi Poirier
Shots faced
30
Saves
25
Allowed
5
xGA
3.66
GSAx
-1.34

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:30Derrick Pouliot (0–1)low · wrist · 26 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
  • 1st 7:12Logan Nijhoff (1–1)high · tip · 10 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 1st 17:43Mavrik Bourque (1–2)low · snap · 33 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
  • 2nd 4:31Mike Hardman (2–2)low · wrist · 23 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 2nd 8:39Penalty
  • 2nd 11:32Penalty
  • 2nd 11:32Penalty
  • 2nd 11:32Penalty
  • 2nd 11:32Penalty
  • 2nd 12:43Anders Bjork (3–2)4v5 · medium · 13 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 2nd 17:04Penalty
  • 2nd 18:32Christian Kyrou (3–3)5v4 · low · wrist · 42 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
  • 2nd 18:42Penalty
  • 2nd 18:42Penalty
  • 2nd 19:42Penalty
  • 2nd 19:42Penalty
  • 2nd 19:42Penalty
  • 3rd 3:15Penalty
  • 3rd 10:08Jackson Cates (4–3)low · snap · 9 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 3rd 15:01Anders Bjork (5–3)medium · wrist · 27 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 3rd 15:22Penalty
  • 3rd 19:56Penalty