AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, January 6

San Jose Barracuda at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

San Jose Barracuda
4:5
Final / OT
Ontario Reign

The sheet

SJONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
60%40%
xG
2.72.5
High danger
63
Chances
1010
Shots
2527

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ONT above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal27
10Scoring chances10
6High-danger chances3
2.74Expected goals2.48

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st3–111–31–10.2–0.9
2nd9–91–50–20.6–1.1
3rd13–38–25–01.9–0.3
OT0–40–00–00.0–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SJ−3−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SJ30:00 of the 3rd20:007:20+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Chrona
Shots faced
27
Saves
22
Allowed
5
xGA
2.48
GSAx
-2.52
Jacob Ingham
Shots faced
25
Saves
21
Allowed
4
xGA
2.74
GSAx
-1.26

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:42Samuel Fagemo (0–1)medium · 16 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 1st 4:55Penalty
  • 1st 15:54Samuel Helenius (0–2)low · 46 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 1st 18:42Penalty
  • 2nd 6:32Penalty
  • 2nd 8:29Akil Thomas (0–3)5v4 · medium · 14 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 2nd 17:16Penalty
  • 2nd 17:16Penalty
  • 2nd 18:14Penalty
  • 2nd 19:46Penalty
  • 3rd 1:47Radim Simek (1–3)5v4 · low · 54 ft · beat Jacob Ingham
  • 3rd 8:43Penalty
  • 3rd 11:20Samuel Fagemo (1–4)medium · 30 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 3rd 12:36Shakir Mukhamadullin (2–4)grade A · rebound · 17 ft · beat Jacob Ingham
  • 3rd 15:17Penalty
  • 3rd 15:54Scott Sabourin (3–4)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Jacob Ingham
  • 3rd 17:55Scott Sabourin (4–4)high · 8 ft · beat Jacob Ingham
  • 3rd 18:30Penalty
  • OT 2:17Samuel Fagemo (4–5)low · 44 ft · beat Magnus Chrona