Belleville Senators at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Belleville Senators

2:1

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

BELMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

25%75%

xG: 1.92.7
High danger: 36
Chances: 411
Shots: 2120

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal20

4Scoring chances11

3High-danger chances6

1.89Expected goals2.74

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–10	1–6	1–6	0.7–1.8
2nd	5–7	0–4	0–0	0.4–0.7
3rd	9–3	3–1	2–0	0.8–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	1	18:52 of the 3rd	1:08	1:08	+0.026 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Collin Delia

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 19
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.89
GSAx: -0.11

Kevin Mandolese

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 19
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.74
GSAx: +1.74

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:42Penalty
1st 4:33Penalty
1st 12:46Penalty
1st 19:10Penalty
1st 19:10Penalty
2nd 2:48Brennan Saulnier (1–0)low · 41 ft · beat Collin Delia
2nd 6:20Penalty
2nd 8:46Nikita Chibrikov (1–1)medium · 31 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
2nd 12:08Penalty
2nd 17:55Penalty
2nd 17:55Penalty
3rd 7:30Penalty
3rd 18:27Penalty
3rd 18:52Zack Ostapchuk (2–1)5v4 · high · 19 ft · beat Collin Delia