AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, January 7

Springfield Thunderbirds at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Springfield Thunderbirds
3:6
Final
Providence Bruins

The sheet

SPRPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
52%48%
xG
2.82.1
High danger
34
Chances
118
Shots
2922

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
PRO above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal22
11Scoring chances8
3High-danger chances4
2.83Expected goals2.06

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st4–131–50–20.3–1.3
2nd9–41–20–10.5–0.3
3rd16–59–13–12.0–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR30:00 of the 3rd20:0019:46+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael DiPietro
Shots faced
29
Saves
26
Allowed
3
xGA
2.83
GSAx
-0.17
Vadim Zherenko
Shots faced
13
Saves
9
Allowed
4
xGA
1.27
GSAx
-2.73
Malcolm Subban
Shots faced
9
Saves
7
Allowed
2
xGA
0.79
GSAx
-1.21

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:41John Farinacci (0–1)medium · 10 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 1st 3:44Justin Brazeau (0–2)high · 14 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 1st 6:05Anthony Richard (0–3)medium · 34 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 1st 9:34Penalty
  • 1st 16:42Penalty
  • 1st 16:42Penalty
  • 1st 17:05Ian Mitchell (0–4)medium · 16 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 2nd 6:27Jayson Megna (0–5)high · 25 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
  • 2nd 11:43Zachary Bolduc (1–5)low · 30 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 2nd 13:55Adam Gaudette (2–5)medium · 27 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 2nd 15:45Penalty
  • 3rd 11:54Mackenzie MacEachern (3–5)medium · 14 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 3rd 13:05Penalty
  • 3rd 17:25Penalty
  • 3rd 17:54Anthony Richard (3–6)empty net · low · 67 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
  • 3rd 18:14Penalty