Rockford IceHogs at Grand Rapids Griffins

Van Andel Arena · Grand Rapids, MI

Rockford IceHogs

2:0

Final

Grand Rapids Griffins

The sheet

RFDGRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

67%33%

xG: 3.72.0
High danger: 95
Chances: 108
Shots: 3422

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

GR above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% GR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal22

10Scoring chances8

9High-danger chances5

3.72Expected goals2.04

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	22–4	8–3	7–3	2.8–0.8
2nd	6–10	2–2	2–1	0.7–0.6
3rd	6–8	0–3	0–1	0.3–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
GR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 32
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.72
GSAx: +1.72

Mitchell Weeks

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 22
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.04
GSAx: +2.04

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:35Penalty
1st 12:53Penalty
1st 13:39Penalty
1st 13:39Penalty
1st 16:18Penalty
2nd 0:20Mike Hardman (1–0)high · wrist · 8 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
2nd 1:48Penalty
2nd 11:15Penalty
3rd 3:02Penalty
3rd 5:43Penalty
3rd 9:59Penalty
3rd 12:22Penalty
3rd 18:48Brett Seney (2–0)empty net · low · 50 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa