Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

2:3

Final / OT

Providence Bruins

The sheet

WBSPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

21%79%

xG: 1.63.4
High danger: 23
Chances: 410
Shots: 2440

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal40

4Scoring chances10

2High-danger chances3

1.60Expected goals3.35

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–12	2–6	1–1	0.6–1.2
2nd	9–14	1–1	0–1	0.5–1.1
3rd	6–13	1–3	1–1	0.5–1.0
OT	0–1	0–0	0–0	0.0–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
PRO	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	2:21	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Joel Blomqvist

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 37
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.35
GSAx: +0.35

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.60
GSAx: -0.40

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:32Penalty
1st 13:02Penalty
1st 17:03Sam Poulin (1–0)medium · tip · 23 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
1st 18:48Penalty
2nd 3:01Penalty
2nd 12:32Ty Smith (2–0)low · 57 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
2nd 16:32Penalty
3rd 2:05Penalty
3rd 12:50Reilly Walsh (2–1)low · 36 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
3rd 14:36Penalty
3rd 18:35Justin Brazeau (2–2)high · 20 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
OT 1:13Ian Mitchell (2–3)low · 34 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist