Hartford Wolf Pack at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Hartford Wolf Pack

1:4

Final

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

HFDLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

35%65%

xG: 2.22.8
High danger: 24
Chances: 611
Shots: 3133

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LV above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal33

6Scoring chances11

2High-danger chances4

2.19Expected goals2.83

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–14	1–6	1–2	0.4–1.4
2nd	11–7	3–3	0–1	0.8–0.8
3rd	14–12	2–2	1–1	1.0–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	3	12:07 of the 3rd	7:53	7:53	+0.011 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Felix Sandström

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 30
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.19
GSAx: +1.19

Louis Domingue

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 18
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.15
GSAx: +0.15

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 13
Saves: 11
Allowed: 2
xGA: 0.68
GSAx: -1.32

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:16Penalty
1st 14:47Olle Lycksell (0–1)low · 56 ft · beat Louis Domingue
1st 18:26Penalty
1st 19:32Olle Lycksell (0–2)5v4 · medium · 22 ft · beat Louis Domingue
2nd 4:39Brandon Scanlin (1–2)low · 25 ft · beat Felix Sandström
2nd 4:50Penalty
2nd 6:31Penalty
2nd 6:57Penalty
2nd 10:54Penalty
2nd 10:54Penalty
2nd 10:54Penalty
2nd 16:08Penalty
2nd 16:08Penalty
2nd 16:08Penalty
2nd 16:08Penalty
3rd 2:41Jacob Gaucher (1–3)high · rebound · 37 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 6:11Penalty
3rd 12:07Victor Mete (1–4)low · 44 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 17:45Penalty
3rd 17:45Penalty
3rd 17:45Penalty