Ontario Reign at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Ontario Reign

2:1

Final

Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

ONTCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

16%84%

xG: 1.73.5
High danger: 36
Chances: 69
Shots: 2437

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CGY above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal37

6Scoring chances9

3High-danger chances6

1.69Expected goals3.46

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–11	0–5	0–4	0.4–1.5
2nd	8–11	4–1	2–1	0.8–0.8
3rd	5–15	2–3	1–1	0.5–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jacob Ingham

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 36
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.46
GSAx: +2.46

Dustin Wolf

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.69
GSAx: -0.31

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:54Akil Thomas (1–0)low · wrist · 41 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
1st 12:38Penalty
1st 17:09Clark Bishop (1–1)high · wrist · 15 ft · beat Jacob Ingham
2nd 1:36Penalty
2nd 3:38Penalty
2nd 9:23Penalty
2nd 15:13Penalty
2nd 17:20Penalty
2nd 18:34Penalty
2nd 19:57Akil Thomas (2–1)5v4 · medium · snap · 14 ft · beat Dustin Wolf
3rd 1:14Penalty
3rd 13:06Penalty