AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, January 12

Coachella Valley Firebirds at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Coachella Valley Firebirds
2:0
Final
Colorado Eagles

The sheet

CVCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
50%50%
xG
3.73.5
High danger
78
Chances
1514
Shots
3432

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
COL above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal32
15Scoring chances14
7High-danger chances8
3.68Expected goals3.52

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st15–95–42–21.3–1.0
2nd9–135–82–41.1–1.7
3rd10–105–23–21.3–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

COL−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
COL212:08 of the 3rd7:527:52+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Justus Annunen
Shots faced
34
Saves
32
Allowed
2
xGA
3.68
GSAx
+1.68
Aleš Stezka
Shots faced
32
Saves
32
Allowed
0
xGA
3.51
GSAx
+3.51

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:50Penalty
  • 1st 6:25Cameron Hughes (1–0)5v4 · medium · 28 ft · beat Justus Annunen
  • 1st 6:43Penalty
  • 1st 16:16Penalty
  • 2nd 3:24Penalty
  • 2nd 7:48Penalty
  • 2nd 8:51Penalty
  • 2nd 15:11Penalty
  • 2nd 16:41Penalty
  • 3rd 9:35Jacob Melanson (2–0)medium · 14 ft · beat Justus Annunen
  • 3rd 16:26Penalty
  • 3rd 19:56Penalty
  • 3rd 19:56Penalty