Tucson Roadrunners at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Tucson Roadrunners

4:0

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

TUCABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

74%26%

xG: 3.92.6
High danger: 62
Chances: 159
Shots: 3630

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal30

15Scoring chances9

6High-danger chances2

3.93Expected goals2.62

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–6	3–2	1–1	0.9–0.5
2nd	12–14	5–4	2–1	1.4–1.4
3rd	13–10	7–3	3–0	1.6–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	3	10:14 of the 3rd	9:46	9:46	+0.014 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Artūrs Šilovs

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 32
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.93
GSAx: -0.07

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 30
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.62
GSAx: +2.62

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 12:48Ben McCartney (1–0)low · 28 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
1st 14:10Penalty
1st 14:10Penalty
2nd 1:05Penalty
2nd 2:48Austin Poganski (2–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
2nd 13:29Penalty
2nd 19:54Penalty
3rd 7:08Penalty
3rd 10:14Jan Jeník (3–0)medium · 14 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
3rd 11:44Justin Kirkland (4–0)low · 38 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
3rd 14:08Penalty