Manitoba Moose at Laval Rocket

Place Bell · Laval, QC

Manitoba Moose

1:4

Final

Laval Rocket

The sheet

MBLAVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

22%78%

xG: 2.85.1
High danger: 411
Chances: 1420
Shots: 2935

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LAV above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% LAV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal35

14Scoring chances20

4High-danger chances11

2.79Expected goals5.09

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–11	2–7	1–5	0.4–2.0
2nd	7–17	3–10	1–5	0.7–2.5
3rd	15–7	9–3	2–1	1.7–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Collin Delia

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 31
Allowed: 4
xGA: 5.09
GSAx: +1.09

Kasimir Kaskisuo

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 28
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.79
GSAx: +1.79

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:42Penalty
1st 11:24Lias Andersson (0–1)5v4 · high · wrist · 9 ft · beat Collin Delia
1st 18:17Logan Mailloux (0–2)low · wrist · 57 ft · beat Collin Delia
2nd 1:23Penalty
2nd 4:44Penalty
2nd 5:35Penalty
2nd 16:04Lias Andersson (0–3)medium · wrist · 6 ft · beat Collin Delia
2nd 18:32Penalty
3rd 3:24Penalty
3rd 5:52Penalty
3rd 7:10Penalty
3rd 7:10Penalty
3rd 8:00Penalty
3rd 11:09Penalty
3rd 11:09Penalty
3rd 13:35Kristian Reichel (1–3)medium · wrist · 57 ft · beat Kasimir Kaskisuo
3rd 17:24Emil Heineman (1–4)empty net · low · wrist · 33 ft · beat Collin Delia
3rd 18:28Penalty