Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

4:3

Final

Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

WBSBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

41%59%

xG: 1.62.7
High danger: 22
Chances: 58
Shots: 2735

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BRI above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal35

5Scoring chances8

2High-danger chances2

1.64Expected goals2.69

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–10	2–2	0–0	0.5–0.7
2nd	7–17	3–5	2–2	0.7–1.6
3rd	12–8	0–1	0–0	0.5–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	1	18:18 of the 3rd	1:42	1:42	+0.040 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Hellberg

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 32
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.69
GSAx: -0.31

Henrik Tikkanen

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 23
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.64
GSAx: -2.36

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:21Jagger Joshua (1–0)low · rebound · 39 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
1st 10:33Sam Poulin (2–0)medium · 28 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
1st 14:17Penalty
2nd 2:38Corey Andonovski (3–0)low · 50 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
2nd 3:17Penalty
2nd 6:58Penalty
2nd 11:51Penalty
2nd 12:03Penalty
2nd 14:45Penalty
2nd 16:52Penalty
2nd 16:52Penalty
2nd 18:11Penalty
2nd 18:55William Dufour (3–1)5v4 · low · 52 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
3rd 2:54Reece Newkirk (3–2)low · 47 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
3rd 10:29Penalty
3rd 16:11Trevor Cosgrove (3–3)low · 57 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
3rd 18:18Jonathan Gruden (4–3)low · 47 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen