Rochester Americans at Charlotte Checkers

Truist Field · Charlotte, NC

Rochester Americans

2:5

Final

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

ROCCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

38%62%

xG: 2.43.7
High danger: 67
Chances: 1113
Shots: 2737

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal37

11Scoring chances13

6High-danger chances7

2.38Expected goals3.69

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–16	4–5	2–3	0.9–1.8
2nd	4–10	2–5	2–2	0.4–1.0
3rd	12–11	5–3	2–2	1.0–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	7:52	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Eric Comrie

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 32
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.69
GSAx: -1.31

Spencer Knight

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 25
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.38
GSAx: +0.38

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:44Penalty
1st 9:18Penalty
1st 15:12Linus Weissbach (1–0)low · 39 ft · beat Spencer Knight
1st 19:26Penalty
2nd 1:03Rasmus Asplund (1–1)5v4 · high · 14 ft · beat Eric Comrie
2nd 1:56Michael Mersch (2–1)high · 13 ft · beat Spencer Knight
2nd 12:08Uvis Balinskis (2–2)medium · 21 ft · beat Eric Comrie
3rd 1:16Mackie Samoskevich (2–3)low · 57 ft · beat Eric Comrie
3rd 1:29Penalty
3rd 11:11Brendan Perlini (2–4)medium · 29 ft · beat Eric Comrie
3rd 16:52Lucas Carlsson (2–5)empty net · low · 74 ft · beat Eric Comrie
3rd 19:58Penalty
3rd 19:58Penalty