San Jose Barracuda at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

San Jose Barracuda

2:3

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

SJBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

71%29%

xG: 3.52.4
High danger: 72
Chances: 128
Shots: 3631

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal31

12Scoring chances8

7High-danger chances2

3.47Expected goals2.38

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–10	4–2	2–0	1.2–0.7
2nd	9–10	3–2	2–1	0.9–0.7
3rd	16–11	5–4	3–1	1.4–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SJ	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	6:02	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jack Campbell

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 34
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.47
GSAx: +1.47

Magnus Chrona

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 28
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.38
GSAx: -0.62

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:27Penalty
1st 5:44Alex Peters (0–1)medium · backhand · 16 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
1st 13:29Penalty
1st 14:27Raphael Lavoie (0–2)5v4 · medium · wrist · 35 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
2nd 11:09Penalty
2nd 15:37Penalty
2nd 17:51Ben Gleason (0–3)low · slap · 51 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
2nd 18:06Penalty
3rd 1:38Kyle Rau (1–3)5v4 · low · wrist · 13 ft · beat Jack Campbell
3rd 9:57Penalty
3rd 13:28Leon Gawanke (2–3)low · slap · 55 ft · beat Jack Campbell
3rd 18:54Penalty