Tucson Roadrunners at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Tucson Roadrunners

2:5

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

TUCABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

22%78%

xG: 2.84.6
High danger: 410
Chances: 919
Shots: 2942

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal42

9Scoring chances19

4High-danger chances10

2.75Expected goals4.61

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–13	3–8	1–5	0.8–1.9
2nd	12–16	3–8	2–4	1.1–1.9
3rd	10–13	3–3	1–1	0.9–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	2	13:52 of the 3rd	6:08	6:08	+0.026 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Wells

Shots faced: 41
Saves: 37
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.60
GSAx: +0.60

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.75
GSAx: +0.75

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:00Penalty
1st 4:07Penalty
1st 5:29Aku Räty (1–0)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
1st 5:32Penalty
1st 5:32Penalty
1st 7:17Penalty
1st 7:17Penalty
1st 7:41Penalty
1st 13:15Penalty
1st 13:15Penalty
1st 14:30Penalty
2nd 2:53John Stevens (1–1)high · 11 ft · beat Dylan Wells
2nd 5:06John Stevens (1–2)high · 10 ft · beat Dylan Wells
2nd 8:59Penalty
2nd 8:59Penalty
2nd 11:09Arshdeep Bains (1–3)low · 30 ft · beat Dylan Wells
2nd 18:32Hunter Drew (2–3)grade A · 15 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
3rd 7:20Penalty
3rd 13:52Tristen Nielsen (2–4)low · 40 ft · beat Dylan Wells
3rd 15:16Penalty
3rd 19:00John Stevens (2–5)empty net · low · 80 ft
3rd 19:51Penalty
3rd 19:51Penalty
3rd 19:51Penalty
3rd 19:51Penalty