AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, January 14

Bridgeport Islanders at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Bridgeport Islanders
0:2
Final
Providence Bruins

The sheet

BRIPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
8%92%
xG
1.43.5
High danger
17
Chances
510
Shots
2140

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
PRO above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal40
5Scoring chances10
1High-danger chances7
1.40Expected goals3.52

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–152–30–20.5–1.1
2nd8–141–50–30.5–1.4
3rd5–112–21–20.4–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BRI−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BRI116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jakub Skarek
Shots faced
40
Saves
38
Allowed
2
xGA
3.52
GSAx
+1.52
Michael DiPietro
Shots faced
21
Saves
21
Allowed
0
xGA
1.40
GSAx
+1.40

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 2nd 6:29Penalty
  • 2nd 8:11Penalty
  • 2nd 11:39Penalty
  • 2nd 17:09Penalty
  • 2nd 17:09Penalty
  • 2nd 17:51Penalty
  • 3rd 2:25Penalty
  • 3rd 10:55Luke Toporowski (0–1)grade A · rebound · 30 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
  • 3rd 13:37Penalty
  • 3rd 14:42Penalty
  • 3rd 17:21Penalty
  • 3rd 19:48Anthony Richard (0–2)empty net · high · 13 ft · beat Jakub Skarek