Iowa Wild at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Iowa Wild

1:3

Final

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

IATUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

50%50%

xG: 3.53.1
High danger: 710
Chances: 1512
Shots: 3025

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal25

15Scoring chances12

7High-danger chances10

3.54Expected goals3.08

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–6	6–4	2–2	1.2–0.9
2nd	6–13	2–5	0–5	0.4–1.6
3rd	12–6	7–3	5–3	1.9–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 29
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.54
GSAx: +2.54

Zane McIntyre

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 22
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.08
GSAx: +0.08

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 15:59Penalty
1st 18:05Penalty
2nd 2:05Penalty
2nd 2:05Penalty
2nd 8:37Josh Doan (0–1)high · 14 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
2nd 11:31Penalty
2nd 12:23Josh Doan (0–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
2nd 17:05Penalty
3rd 4:39Steven Fogarty (1–2)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 5:58Penalty
3rd 19:36Milos Kelemen (1–3)empty net · high · 11 ft · beat Zane McIntyre