Belleville Senators at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Belleville Senators

3:4

Final

Utica Comets

The sheet

BELUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

81%19%

xG: 3.31.8
High danger: 31
Chances: 167
Shots: 3921

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

39Shots on goal21

16Scoring chances7

3High-danger chances1

3.27Expected goals1.84

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–10	4–4	2–0	1.1–0.8
2nd	10–6	4–3	0–1	0.8–0.7
3rd	15–5	8–0	1–0	1.4–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	7:06	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Akira Schmid

Shots faced: 39
Saves: 36
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.27
GSAx: +0.27

Kevin Mandolese

Shots faced: 13
Saves: 10
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.17
GSAx: -1.83

Leevi Meriläinen

Shots faced: 8
Saves: 7
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.67
GSAx: -0.33

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:41Penalty
1st 14:49Joe Gambardella (0–1)low · 28 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
1st 18:25Penalty
2nd 1:47Penalty
2nd 1:47Penalty
2nd 5:28Timur Ibragimov (0–2)low · 43 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
2nd 7:42Kyle Criscuolo (0–3)high · 19 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
2nd 8:39Graeme Clarke (0–4)medium · 27 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
2nd 17:55Kyle Betts (1–4)low · 52 ft · beat Akira Schmid
2nd 18:44Penalty
3rd 1:33Dillon Heatherington (2–4)low · 47 ft · beat Akira Schmid
3rd 13:39Penalty
3rd 14:37Egor Sokolov (3–4)5v4 · medium · 43 ft · beat Akira Schmid