Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

0:6

Final

Rochester Americans

The sheet

LVROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

56%44%

xG: 3.02.1
High danger: 55
Chances: 149
Shots: 3220

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ROC above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal20

14Scoring chances9

5High-danger chances5

3.00Expected goals2.13

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–8	4–2	2–1	0.9–0.6
2nd	12–8	6–4	2–2	1.3–0.9
3rd	8–4	4–3	1–2	0.7–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LV	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Eric Comrie

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 32
Allowed: 0
xGA: 3.00
GSAx: +3.00

Felix Sandström

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 14
Allowed: 6
xGA: 2.13
GSAx: -3.87

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:31Brandon Biro (0–1)low · 48 ft · beat Felix Sandström
1st 3:12Penalty
1st 9:22Brett Murray (0–2)high · 6 ft · beat Felix Sandström
1st 13:21Penalty
1st 18:06Penalty
2nd 10:15Linus Weissbach (0–3)low · 57 ft · beat Felix Sandström
2nd 12:11Penalty
2nd 12:24Penalty
3rd 1:34Penalty
3rd 5:28Penalty
3rd 6:57Penalty
3rd 8:57Penalty
3rd 12:26Penalty
3rd 12:47Mason Jobst (0–4)5v4 · high · 8 ft · beat Felix Sandström
3rd 17:18Tyson Kozak (0–5)high · 8 ft · beat Felix Sandström
3rd 19:49Viktor Neuchev (0–6)medium · 13 ft · beat Felix Sandström