AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, January 17

Bakersfield Condors at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Bakersfield Condors
4:2
Final
Colorado Eagles

The sheet

BAKCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
24%76%
xG
2.64.5
High danger
59
Chances
1016
Shots
2334

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
COL above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal34
10Scoring chances16
5High-danger chances9
2.58Expected goals4.46

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–123–63–11.2–1.4
2nd10–146–82–71.1–2.4
3rd4–81–20–10.3–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

COL−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
COL116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jack Campbell
Shots faced
34
Saves
32
Allowed
2
xGA
4.46
GSAx
+2.46
Trent Miner
Shots faced
23
Saves
19
Allowed
4
xGA
2.58
GSAx
-1.42

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:35Penalty
  • 1st 2:35Penalty
  • 1st 2:35Penalty
  • 1st 9:09Penalty
  • 1st 11:14Penalty
  • 1st 13:32Tanner Kero (0–1)medium · 13 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 1st 13:51Markus Niemelainen (1–1)grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Trent Miner
  • 1st 17:02Spencer Smallman (1–2)medium · 13 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 2nd 1:09Penalty
  • 2nd 8:55Greg McKegg (2–2)low · 11 ft · beat Trent Miner
  • 2nd 13:20Drake Caggiula (3–2)medium · 10 ft · beat Trent Miner
  • 2nd 15:29Penalty
  • 2nd 18:11Penalty
  • 2nd 18:11Penalty
  • 3rd 8:21Penalty
  • 3rd 19:12Dylan Holloway (4–2)empty net · low · 96 ft · beat Trent Miner