Ontario Reign at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Ontario Reign

1:2

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

ONTABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

42%58%

xG: 3.03.1
High danger: 34
Chances: 1113
Shots: 3131

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal31

11Scoring chances13

3High-danger chances4

3.03Expected goals3.12

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–8	3–2	0–0	0.8–0.5
2nd	12–11	2–5	0–2	0.8–1.2
3rd	10–12	6–6	3–2	1.4–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 30
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.03
GSAx: +2.03

Jacob Ingham

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 29
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.12
GSAx: +1.12

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

2nd 9:29Penalty
2nd 14:24Penalty
3rd 0:43Penalty
3rd 1:02Samuel Helenius (1–0)4v5 · high · 16 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
3rd 1:54Linus Karlsson (1–1)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Jacob Ingham
3rd 3:15Max Sasson (1–2)medium · 20 ft · beat Jacob Ingham
3rd 5:32Penalty
3rd 11:26Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty