AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, January 19

Hershey Bears at Hartford Wolf Pack

XL Center · Hartford, CT

Hershey Bears
4:2
Final
Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

HERHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
49%51%
xG
2.82.6
High danger
46
Chances
1411
Shots
2525

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HFD above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal25
14Scoring chances11
4High-danger chances6
2.80Expected goals2.56

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–57–22–21.2–0.6
2nd9–114–61–41.0–1.3
3rd6–93–31–00.6–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HFD−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HFD212:08 of the 3rd7:527:52+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Louis Domingue
Shots faced
25
Saves
21
Allowed
4
xGA
2.80
GSAx
-1.20
Hunter Shepard
Shots faced
25
Saves
23
Allowed
2
xGA
2.56
GSAx
+0.56

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:34Jake Leschyshyn (0–1)high · 4 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 1st 10:12Penalty
  • 1st 10:38Pierrick Dubé (1–1)5v4 · medium · 32 ft · beat Louis Domingue
  • 2nd 3:00Penalty
  • 2nd 3:00Penalty
  • 2nd 3:00Penalty
  • 2nd 3:00Penalty
  • 2nd 3:00Penalty
  • 2nd 4:00Penalty
  • 2nd 16:05Penalty
  • 2nd 16:10Mike Vecchione (2–1)5v4 · low · 66 ft · beat Louis Domingue
  • 2nd 18:20Penalty
  • 2nd 18:40Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 3:04Penalty
  • 3rd 10:54Aaron Ness (3–1)low · 58 ft · beat Louis Domingue
  • 3rd 17:11Ethen Frank (4–1)empty net · low · 34 ft · beat Louis Domingue
  • 3rd 19:19Penalty
  • 3rd 19:59Alex Belzile (4–2)5v4 · medium · 22 ft · beat Hunter Shepard