Providence Bruins at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Providence Bruins

2:4

Final

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

PROSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

58%42%

xG: 2.42.7
High danger: 44
Chances: 97
Shots: 2633

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal33

9Scoring chances7

4High-danger chances4

2.40Expected goals2.71

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–8	4–3	0–1	0.9–0.9
2nd	8–13	3–1	2–0	0.8–0.8
3rd	8–12	2–3	2–3	0.8–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
PRO	1	18:30 of the 3rd	1:30	1:30	+0.035 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 29
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.71
GSAx: -1.29

Hugo Alnefelt

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.40
GSAx: +0.40

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:25Jack Finley (0–1)grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
1st 12:59Penalty
1st 15:16Penalty
1st 16:43Reilly Walsh (1–1)5v4 · medium · 36 ft · beat Hugo Alnefelt
2nd 0:27Penalty
2nd 12:29Georgii Merkulov (2–1)high · 23 ft · beat Hugo Alnefelt
2nd 17:58Penalty
3rd 0:31Cole Koepke (2–2)low · 35 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 2:29Penalty
3rd 6:00Penalty
3rd 8:48Penalty
3rd 18:30Declan Carlile (2–3)low · 44 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 19:32Jack Thompson (2–4)empty net · low · 150 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 19:58Penalty