Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Cleveland Monsters

Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse · Cleveland, OH

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

2:4

Final

Cleveland Monsters

The sheet

LVCLESolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

59%41%

xG: 2.01.8
High danger: 21
Chances: 87
Shots: 2622

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLE above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% CLE.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal22

8Scoring chances7

2High-danger chances1

2.01Expected goals1.77

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–7	4–3	1–1	1.0–0.6
2nd	6–9	1–3	0–0	0.4–0.8
3rd	6–6	3–1	1–0	0.6–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LV	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	15:06	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jet Greaves

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.01
GSAx: +0.01

Cal Petersen

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 18
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.77
GSAx: -2.23

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:02Penalty
1st 6:22Penalty
1st 10:21Penalty
1st 17:31Samu Tuomaala (1–0)low · 30 ft · beat Jet Greaves
1st 17:43Luca Del Bel Belluz (1–1)medium · 26 ft · beat Cal Petersen
1st 19:34Penalty
2nd 1:33James Malatesta (1–2)5v4 · medium · tip · 32 ft · beat Cal Petersen
2nd 3:14James Malatesta (1–3)medium · 23 ft · beat Cal Petersen
2nd 17:29Penalty
2nd 18:11Jake Christiansen (1–4)5v4 · medium · 18 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 7:14Jacob Gaucher (2–4)medium · tip · 25 ft · beat Jet Greaves
3rd 7:38Penalty
3rd 11:56Penalty
3rd 16:57Penalty