Rochester Americans at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Rochester Americans

2:1

Final

Utica Comets

The sheet

ROCUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

85%15%

xG: 2.31.6
High danger: 30
Chances: 85
Shots: 2925

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal25

8Scoring chances5

3High-danger chances0

2.34Expected goals1.62

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–6	3–3	1–0	0.7–0.6
2nd	13–13	3–2	1–0	1.0–0.8
3rd	7–6	2–0	1–0	0.5–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Isaac Poulter

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.34
GSAx: +0.34

Dustin Tokarski

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 24
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.62
GSAx: +0.62

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:07Brendan Warren (1–0)high · 9 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
2nd 5:03Penalty
2nd 16:17Penalty
2nd 17:56Lukáš Rousek (2–0)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 18 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
3rd 3:07Will MacKinnon (2–1)low · 36 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
3rd 6:04Penalty
3rd 6:04Penalty
3rd 8:20Penalty
3rd 10:55Penalty
3rd 10:55Penalty
3rd 10:55Penalty
3rd 10:55Penalty
3rd 14:32Penalty