AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, January 19

Texas Stars at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Texas Stars
4:5
Final
Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

TEXMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
22%78%
xG
2.23.4
High danger
13
Chances
716
Shots
2933

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MIL above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal33
7Scoring chances16
1High-danger chances3
2.21Expected goals3.38

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–133–81–10.9–1.3
2nd14–124–70–21.0–1.5
3rd6–80–10–00.2–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TEX−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TEX116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray
Shots faced
33
Saves
28
Allowed
5
xGA
3.38
GSAx
-1.62
Yaroslav Askarov
Shots faced
29
Saves
25
Allowed
4
xGA
2.21
GSAx
-1.79

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:09Zach L’Heureux (0–1)medium · 11 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 1st 9:44Penalty
  • 1st 13:28Penalty
  • 1st 14:40Egor Afanasyev (0–2)4v5 · medium · 34 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 1st 15:21Logan Stankoven (1–2)5v4 · medium · 33 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
  • 1st 16:05Matthew Seminoff (2–2)high · 14 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
  • 1st 17:56Antonio Stranges (3–2)low · 26 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
  • 1st 18:52Penalty
  • 1st 18:52Penalty
  • 2nd 4:02Penalty
  • 2nd 8:06Penalty
  • 2nd 10:40Jordan Gross (3–3)low · 58 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 10:52Penalty
  • 2nd 13:31Penalty
  • 2nd 16:55Mark Jankowski (3–4)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 19:27Michael Karow (4–4)low · 26 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
  • 3rd 8:02Penalty
  • 3rd 10:01Penalty
  • 3rd 11:26Spencer Stastney (4–5)4v5 · low · 39 ft · beat Matthew Murray