AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, January 19

Henderson Silver Knights at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Henderson Silver Knights
4:2
Final
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

HSKTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
20%80%
xG
2.04.2
High danger
36
Chances
616
Shots
2743

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal43
6Scoring chances16
3High-danger chances6
2.00Expected goals4.19

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–131–31–20.5–1.1
2nd15–123–71–31.1–1.5
3rd6–182–61–10.5–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC212:08 of the 3rd7:527:52+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jordan Papirny
Shots faced
43
Saves
41
Allowed
2
xGA
4.19
GSAx
+2.19
Dylan Wells
Shots faced
27
Saves
23
Allowed
4
xGA
2.00
GSAx
-2.00

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:49Penalty
  • 1st 6:29Penalty
  • 1st 6:55Lukas Cormier (1–0)5v4 · high · 28 ft · beat Dylan Wells
  • 1st 8:54Penalty
  • 2nd 4:41Alex Swetlikoff (2–0)high · rebound · 12 ft · beat Dylan Wells
  • 2nd 6:39Milos Kelemen (2–1)medium · 21 ft · beat Jordan Papirny
  • 2nd 11:24Austin Poganski (2–2)high · 15 ft · beat Jordan Papirny
  • 2nd 15:42Brandon Hickey (3–2)medium · 13 ft · beat Dylan Wells
  • 2nd 16:22Penalty
  • 3rd 7:32Penalty
  • 3rd 7:32Penalty
  • 3rd 7:32Penalty
  • 3rd 7:47Penalty
  • 3rd 8:25Grigori Denisenko (4–2)5v4 · high · 45 ft · beat Dylan Wells
  • 3rd 12:53Penalty
  • 3rd 13:06Penalty
  • 3rd 13:06Penalty
  • 3rd 16:33Penalty