Calgary Wranglers at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Calgary Wranglers

3:4

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

CGYCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

30%70%

xG: 2.53.7
High danger: 46
Chances: 1115
Shots: 2835

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal35

11Scoring chances15

4High-danger chances6

2.49Expected goals3.67

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–16	3–7	1–3	0.9–1.4
2nd	8–15	5–5	0–2	0.8–1.7
3rd	8–4	3–3	3–1	0.8–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	3	8:04 of the 3rd	11:56	10:15	+0.017 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Oscar Dansk

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 31
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.67
GSAx: -0.33

Aleš Stezka

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 25
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.49
GSAx: -0.51

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:36Jonathan Aspirot (1–0)medium · 25 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
1st 9:01Penalty
1st 15:39Penalty
1st 16:09Penalty
1st 17:22Penalty
1st 17:22Penalty
1st 19:54Penalty
2nd 7:10Penalty
2nd 7:10Penalty
2nd 9:19Connor Carrick (1–1)low · 26 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
2nd 10:27Penalty
2nd 10:27Penalty
2nd 10:27Penalty
2nd 10:27Penalty
2nd 10:38Andrew Poturalski (1–2)5v4 · low · 58 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
2nd 11:13Penalty
2nd 12:43Penalty
2nd 16:46Penalty
3rd 0:40Penalty
3rd 2:20Penalty
3rd 3:43Ville Petman (1–3)4v5 · low · 20 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
3rd 8:04Cameron Hughes (1–4)high · 18 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
3rd 10:27Yan Kuznetsov (2–4)low · 11 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
3rd 13:13Penalty
3rd 13:51Penalty
3rd 18:13Rory Kerins (3–4)high · 10 ft · beat Aleš Stezka