AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, January 20

Toronto Marlies at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Toronto Marlies
5:2
Final
Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

TORCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
52%48%
xG
3.33.1
High danger
67
Chances
1612
Shots
3025

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CLT above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal25
16Scoring chances12
6High-danger chances7
3.34Expected goals3.05

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–75–53–21.2–1.2
2nd10–85–20–20.9–0.5
3rd10–106–53–31.2–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CLT−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CLT212:08 of the 3rd7:527:52+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Spencer Knight
Shots faced
30
Saves
25
Allowed
5
xGA
3.34
GSAx
-1.66
Dennis Hildeby
Shots faced
25
Saves
23
Allowed
2
xGA
3.05
GSAx
+1.05

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:58Penalty
  • 1st 6:25Alex Steeves (1–0)grade A · 9 ft · beat Spencer Knight
  • 1st 11:51Penalty
  • 1st 14:38Michael Benning (1–1)medium · 23 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 1st 17:06Rasmus Asplund (1–2)medium · 20 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 1st 17:43Penalty
  • 1st 20:00Penalty
  • 1st 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 6:35Max Ellis (2–2)low · 65 ft · beat Spencer Knight
  • 2nd 7:32Penalty
  • 2nd 14:29Penalty
  • 2nd 16:02Ryan Tverberg (3–2)5v4 · medium · 29 ft · beat Spencer Knight
  • 2nd 16:22Penalty
  • 2nd 17:51Logan Shaw (4–2)5v4 · medium · 20 ft · beat Spencer Knight
  • 2nd 18:06Penalty
  • 3rd 3:29Penalty
  • 3rd 3:29Penalty
  • 3rd 3:29Penalty
  • 3rd 6:21Penalty
  • 3rd 7:21Penalty
  • 3rd 16:48Logan Shaw (5–2)empty net · high · 8 ft · beat Spencer Knight