AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, January 20

Springfield Thunderbirds at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Springfield Thunderbirds
3:7
Final
Rochester Americans

The sheet

SPRROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
19%81%
xG
1.63.5
High danger
34
Chances
611
Shots
1740

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ROC above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

17Shots on goal40
6Scoring chances11
3High-danger chances4
1.57Expected goals3.54

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–164–42–20.9–1.5
2nd6–122–41–20.5–1.2
3rd3–120–30–00.2–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR311:51 of the 3rd8:098:09+0.011 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Malcolm Subban
Shots faced
24
Saves
19
Allowed
5
xGA
2.05
GSAx
-2.95
Devon Levi
Shots faced
17
Saves
14
Allowed
3
xGA
1.57
GSAx
-1.43
Vadim Zherenko
Shots faced
16
Saves
14
Allowed
2
xGA
1.49
GSAx
-0.51

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:24Linus Weissbach (0–1)medium · 33 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 1st 6:07Graham Slaggert (0–2)low · 12 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 1st 6:46Calle Rosén (1–2)low · 39 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 1st 8:43Penalty
  • 1st 13:24Penalty
  • 1st 15:28Penalty
  • 1st 17:17Tanner Dickinson (2–2)5v4 · low · 41 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 2nd 5:25Kale Clague (2–3)low · 19 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
  • 2nd 8:55Brett Murray (2–4)low · 30 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
  • 2nd 10:57Penalty
  • 2nd 11:42Isak Rosén (2–5)4v5 · high · 14 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
  • 2nd 14:47Mikhail Abramov (3–5)medium · 25 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 2nd 19:21Penalty
  • 3rd 11:51Viktor Neuchev (3–6)low · 39 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
  • 3rd 13:58Linus Weissbach (3–7)low · 21 ft · beat Malcolm Subban