AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, January 20

Grand Rapids Griffins at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Grand Rapids Griffins
4:3
Final
Manitoba Moose

The sheet

GRMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
47%53%
xG
2.62.2
High danger
15
Chances
119
Shots
3620

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MB above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal20
11Scoring chances9
1High-danger chances5
2.57Expected goals2.23

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–105–40–11.0–1.0
2nd11–63–21–10.8–0.6
3rd13–43–30–30.8–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

GR−1MB0:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
GR30:00 of the 3rd20:003:24+0.024 pts
MB119:48 of the 3rd0:120:12+0.004 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Oskari Salminen
Shots faced
36
Saves
32
Allowed
4
xGA
2.57
GSAx
-1.43
Michael Hutchinson
Shots faced
20
Saves
17
Allowed
3
xGA
2.23
GSAx
-0.77

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:58Nikita Chibrikov (0–1)medium · 13 ft · beat Michael Hutchinson
  • 1st 3:46Nikita Chibrikov (0–2)medium · 16 ft · beat Michael Hutchinson
  • 1st 8:56Penalty
  • 1st 17:43Penalty
  • 2nd 7:02Penalty
  • 2nd 10:37Penalty
  • 2nd 13:01Thomas Caron (0–3)high · 12 ft · beat Michael Hutchinson
  • 2nd 18:10Penalty
  • 3rd 1:02Marco Kasper (1–3)low · 27 ft · beat Oskari Salminen
  • 3rd 4:30Penalty
  • 3rd 7:10Marco Kasper (2–3)low · 48 ft · beat Oskari Salminen
  • 3rd 19:18Austin Czarnik (3–3)low · 62 ft · beat Oskari Salminen
  • 3rd 19:48Zach Aston-Reese (4–3)medium · 11 ft · beat Oskari Salminen