AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, January 20

Texas Stars at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Texas Stars
3:5
Final
Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

TEXMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
38%62%
xG
3.03.4
High danger
47
Chances
1113
Shots
3532

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MIL above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal32
11Scoring chances13
4High-danger chances7
2.97Expected goals3.38

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st13–133–42–31.0–1.3
2nd11–105–61–21.0–1.2
3rd11–93–31–20.9–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TEX−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TEX116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Yaroslav Askarov
Shots faced
35
Saves
32
Allowed
3
xGA
2.97
GSAx
-0.03
Rémi Poirier
Shots faced
32
Saves
27
Allowed
5
xGA
3.38
GSAx
-1.62

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 6:20Penalty
  • 1st 8:07Penalty
  • 1st 13:14Zach L’Heureux (0–1)high · rebound · 14 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 1st 14:36Jasper Weatherby (0–2)medium · 22 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 2nd 3:12Penalty
  • 2nd 3:29Spencer Stastney (0–3)5v4 · low · 38 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 2nd 5:08Penalty
  • 2nd 6:50Antonio Stranges (1–3)5v4 · medium · 30 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
  • 2nd 10:36Matěj Blümel (2–3)medium · 23 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
  • 2nd 12:38Reid Schaefer (2–4)medium · 25 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 2nd 13:09Matěj Blümel (3–4)medium · 16 ft · beat Yaroslav Askarov
  • 2nd 13:34Penalty
  • 2nd 16:16Penalty
  • 2nd 16:16Penalty
  • 2nd 16:16Penalty
  • 2nd 16:16Penalty
  • 2nd 17:38Penalty
  • 2nd 19:58Penalty
  • 3rd 7:09Penalty
  • 3rd 8:14Penalty
  • 3rd 18:48Cal O’Reilly (3–5)empty net · low · 132 ft · beat Rémi Poirier