Utica Comets at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Utica Comets

2:5

Final

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

UTCSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

34%66%

xG: 2.63.6
High danger: 22
Chances: 713
Shots: 3440

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal40

7Scoring chances13

2High-danger chances2

2.57Expected goals3.58

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–10	1–1	0–0	0.6–0.6
2nd	11–18	4–7	2–1	0.9–1.7
3rd	13–12	2–5	0–1	1.0–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Akira Schmid

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 35
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.58
GSAx: -1.42

Matt Tomkins

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 32
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.57
GSAx: +0.57

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:30Penalty
1st 16:35Graeme Clarke (1–0)medium · 16 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
1st 19:43Penalty
2nd 0:30Jack Thompson (1–1)5v4 · medium · 33 ft · beat Akira Schmid
2nd 3:12Tristan Allard (1–2)medium · 23 ft · beat Akira Schmid
2nd 6:01Penalty
2nd 6:54Mitchell Chaffee (1–3)5v4 · medium · 33 ft · beat Akira Schmid
2nd 8:05Penalty
2nd 11:38Penalty
2nd 17:57Penalty
2nd 19:57Sean Day (1–4)low · 35 ft · beat Akira Schmid
3rd 4:36Jack Finley (1–5)medium · 22 ft · beat Akira Schmid
3rd 6:32Penalty
3rd 15:30Penalty
3rd 16:53Brian Halonen (2–5)5v4 · medium · 41 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
3rd 20:00Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty