AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, January 20

Laval Rocket at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Laval Rocket
3:2
Final
Belleville Senators

The sheet

LAVBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
29%71%
xG
2.64.0
High danger
25
Chances
811
Shots
3247

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BEL above the lineLAV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal47
8Scoring chances11
2High-danger chances5
2.59Expected goals4.01

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–102–11–10.6–0.8
2nd16–143–50–31.2–1.6
3rd8–233–51–10.7–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BEL−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BEL116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Kasimir Kaskisuo
Shots faced
47
Saves
45
Allowed
2
xGA
4.01
GSAx
+2.01
Kevin Mandolese
Shots faced
32
Saves
29
Allowed
3
xGA
2.59
GSAx
-0.41

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:23Penalty
  • 1st 0:23Penalty
  • 1st 3:17Lassi Thomson (0–1)low · 56 ft · beat Kasimir Kaskisuo
  • 1st 5:20Penalty
  • 1st 5:20Penalty
  • 1st 10:21Penalty
  • 2nd 2:29Penalty
  • 2nd 7:02Matthew Highmore (0–2)low · 40 ft · beat Kasimir Kaskisuo
  • 2nd 16:13Penalty
  • 2nd 16:13Penalty
  • 2nd 18:21Jared Davidson (1–2)medium · 23 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 2nd 19:03Xavier Simoneau (2–2)low · 34 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 2nd 19:52Penalty
  • 3rd 0:37Emil Heineman (3–2)5v4 · medium · 44 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 3rd 4:02Penalty
  • 3rd 4:02Penalty
  • 3rd 10:12Penalty