Iowa Wild at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Iowa Wild

1:4

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

IARFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

53%47%

xG: 1.81.7
High danger: 32
Chances: 46
Shots: 2221

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal21

4Scoring chances6

3High-danger chances2

1.78Expected goals1.69

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–6	1–1	1–0	0.9–0.3
2nd	7–6	3–2	2–1	0.7–0.8
3rd	6–9	0–3	0–1	0.2–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	2	16:19 of the 3rd	3:41	3:41	+0.017 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 21
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.78
GSAx: +0.78

Zane McIntyre

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 17
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.68
GSAx: -1.32

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:58Penalty
1st 7:04Penalty
1st 15:25Penalty
1st 15:25Penalty
1st 19:35Penalty
2nd 3:08Wyatt Kaiser (0–1)grade A · 19 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
2nd 7:21Adam Beckman (1–1)medium · tip · 29 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 13:09Penalty
3rd 5:33Penalty
3rd 10:21Penalty
3rd 11:43Brett Seney (1–2)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
3rd 14:19Penalty
3rd 15:04Penalty
3rd 16:19Ryder Rolston (1–3)5v4 · medium · 51 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
3rd 17:40Mike Hardman (1–4)empty net · low · 87 ft