Coachella Valley Firebirds at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Coachella Valley Firebirds

4:2

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

CVONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

43%57%

xG: 2.12.6
High danger: 54
Chances: 810
Shots: 2629

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal29

8Scoring chances10

5High-danger chances4

2.14Expected goals2.62

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–9	3–3	2–2	0.8–1.1
2nd	9–11	3–5	2–2	0.7–1.0
3rd	6–9	2–2	1–0	0.6–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cale Morris

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.62
GSAx: +0.62

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 22
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.03
GSAx: -0.97

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:31Penalty
1st 2:06Tyler Madden (0–1)5v4 · low · 37 ft · beat Cale Morris
1st 6:19Jacob Moverare (0–2)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Cale Morris
1st 11:36Penalty
1st 13:49Cameron Hughes (1–2)low · 36 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 0:56Max McCormick (2–2)medium · 15 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 2:05Penalty
2nd 11:40Penalty
2nd 17:31Penalty
3rd 3:22Penalty
3rd 3:53Shane Wright (3–2)5v4 · high · 19 ft · beat Erik Portillo
3rd 10:46Penalty
3rd 19:28Kole Lind (4–2)empty net · low · 21 ft