Calgary Wranglers at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Calgary Wranglers

3:7

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

CGYBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

44%56%

xG: 2.83.0
High danger: 44
Chances: 1011
Shots: 2933

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal33

10Scoring chances11

4High-danger chances4

2.83Expected goals3.03

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–9	1–2	0–1	0.6–0.7
2nd	11–15	4–9	2–3	1.2–1.9
3rd	10–9	5–0	2–0	1.0–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.012 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.83
GSAx: -0.17

Oscar Dansk

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 17
Allowed: 6
xGA: 2.50
GSAx: -3.50

Connor Murphy

Shots faced: 10
Saves: 9
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.53
GSAx: -0.47

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:48Jayden Grubbe (0–1)high · wrist · 13 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
1st 4:50Penalty
1st 6:01Rory Kerins (1–1)5v4 · medium · wrist · 11 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
1st 6:45Penalty
1st 8:22Lane Pederson (1–2)5v4 · low · slap · 40 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
1st 9:07Penalty
1st 11:56Clark Bishop (2–2)low · wrist · 33 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
1st 13:45Seth Griffith (2–3)low · wrist · 15 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
1st 17:49Penalty
2nd 1:56Penalty
2nd 6:41Penalty
2nd 7:32Seth Griffith (2–4)5v4 · medium · wrist · 27 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
2nd 9:21Penalty
2nd 16:09Penalty
2nd 16:09Penalty
2nd 16:29Ben Gleason (2–5)medium · 32 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
2nd 16:51Max Wanner (2–6)medium · backhand · 17 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
3rd 2:30Penalty
3rd 3:57Ben Jones (3–6)5v4 · high · wrist · 19 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
3rd 4:33Penalty
3rd 4:33Penalty
3rd 4:33Penalty
3rd 11:08Noel Hoefenmayer (3–7)low · wrist · 40 ft · beat Connor Murphy
3rd 17:00Penalty