AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, January 21

Bakersfield Condors at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Bakersfield Condors
6:2
Final
Ontario Reign

The sheet

BAKONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
62%38%
xG
3.53.0
High danger
86
Chances
1313
Shots
3129

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ONT above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal29
13Scoring chances13
8High-danger chances6
3.47Expected goals2.99

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st13–106–34–21.5–0.7
2nd6–102–71–40.4–1.4
3rd12–95–33–01.5–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ONT−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ONT212:08 of the 3rd7:527:52+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jacob Ingham
Shots faced
31
Saves
25
Allowed
6
xGA
3.47
GSAx
-2.53
Jack Campbell
Shots faced
29
Saves
27
Allowed
2
xGA
2.99
GSAx
+0.99

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:03Hayden Hodgson (0–1)high · 8 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 1st 12:01Penalty
  • 1st 15:14Carter Savoie (1–1)high · 23 ft · beat Jacob Ingham
  • 1st 16:03Penalty
  • 1st 17:42Matvey Petrov (2–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 17 ft · beat Jacob Ingham
  • 2nd 7:11Alex Turcotte (2–2)high · 16 ft · beat Jack Campbell
  • 2nd 11:54Penalty
  • 2nd 12:26Penalty
  • 2nd 18:45Penalty
  • 3rd 0:49Penalty
  • 3rd 0:54Penalty
  • 3rd 1:19Drake Caggiula (3–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Jacob Ingham
  • 3rd 1:53Penalty
  • 3rd 4:18Penalty
  • 3rd 5:25Seth Griffith (4–2)5v4 · medium · 28 ft · beat Jacob Ingham
  • 3rd 15:15Drake Caggiula (5–2)low · 37 ft · beat Jacob Ingham
  • 3rd 18:10Penalty
  • 3rd 18:10Penalty
  • 3rd 19:12Xavier Bourgault (6–2)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Jacob Ingham