Texas Stars at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Texas Stars

2:3

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

TEXIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

58%42%

xG: 2.92.4
High danger: 33
Chances: 87
Shots: 3032

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal32

8Scoring chances7

3High-danger chances3

2.92Expected goals2.38

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–12	4–3	1–1	1.2–1.0
2nd	7–8	1–2	0–0	0.6–0.5
3rd	14–12	3–2	2–2	1.1–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TEX	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 29
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.38
GSAx: -0.62

Zane McIntyre

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 28
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.92
GSAx: +0.92

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:03Penalty
1st 3:39Adam Beckman (0–1)5v4 · low · 47 ft · beat Matthew Murray
1st 12:20Penalty
1st 16:45Penalty
2nd 7:47Penalty
3rd 1:01Penalty
3rd 2:07Matěj Blümel (1–1)5v4 · low · 63 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
3rd 9:22Michael Milne (1–2)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 10:21Logan Stankoven (2–2)grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
3rd 13:48Penalty
3rd 14:28Steven Fogarty (2–3)5v4 · high · 24 ft · beat Matthew Murray