Springfield Thunderbirds at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Springfield Thunderbirds

1:4

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

SPRHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

54%46%

xG: 3.02.6
High danger: 44
Chances: 129
Shots: 3422

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal22

12Scoring chances9

4High-danger chances4

2.97Expected goals2.55

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–7	3–3	0–1	0.8–0.6
2nd	11–5	6–2	3–1	1.4–0.6
3rd	12–10	3–4	1–2	0.8–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	2	12:08 of the 3rd	7:52	3:32	+0.028 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Hunter Shepard

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 33
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.97
GSAx: +1.97

Malcolm Subban

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 18
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.55
GSAx: -1.45

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 15:53Penalty
1st 17:53Penalty
2nd 1:01Penalty
2nd 5:50Penalty
2nd 9:37Mike Vecchione (0–1)grade A · rebound · 33 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
2nd 14:40Penalty
2nd 17:03Jimmy Huntington (0–2)medium · 32 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
2nd 18:42Penalty
3rd 2:50Penalty
3rd 6:34Penalty
3rd 10:08Penalty
3rd 12:36Mathias Laferrière (1–2)medium · 18 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
3rd 15:04Penalty
3rd 18:11Ethen Frank (1–3)empty net · low · 70 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
3rd 19:15Pierrick Dubé (1–4)empty net · low · 49 ft · beat Malcolm Subban