Hartford Wolf Pack at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Hartford Wolf Pack

1:4

Final

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

HFDWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

27%73%

xG: 2.32.8
High danger: 14
Chances: 1012
Shots: 2831

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal31

10Scoring chances12

1High-danger chances4

2.33Expected goals2.81

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–14	2–5	0–2	0.5–1.4
2nd	9–11	3–3	1–2	0.7–0.9
3rd	12–6	5–4	0–0	1.1–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.012 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Louis Domingue

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 27
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.81
GSAx: -1.19

Joel Blomqvist

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 27
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.33
GSAx: +1.33

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:05Jesse Puljujärvi (0–1)low · snap · 42 ft · beat Louis Domingue
1st 3:42Alex Nylander (0–2)medium · wrist · 30 ft · beat Louis Domingue
1st 9:12Penalty
1st 19:41Penalty
2nd 1:29Penalty
2nd 10:44Jack St. Ivany (0–3)low · slap · 50 ft · beat Louis Domingue
2nd 13:01Sam Poulin (0–4)high · backhand · 9 ft · beat Louis Domingue
3rd 6:51Penalty
3rd 7:48Brennan Othmann (1–4)5v4 · medium · slap · 28 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
3rd 8:43Penalty
3rd 10:31Penalty