Chicago Wolves at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Chicago Wolves

2:1

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

CHIMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

30%70%

xG: 2.22.7
High danger: 26
Chances: 510
Shots: 2533

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal33

5Scoring chances10

2High-danger chances6

2.17Expected goals2.66

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–8	3–3	1–2	0.7–0.7
2nd	11–12	2–5	1–3	1.0–1.4
3rd	7–13	0–2	0–1	0.5–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Adam Scheel

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 32
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.66
GSAx: +1.66

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 23
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.17
GSAx: +0.17

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:01Penalty
1st 2:45Vasily Ponomarev (1–0)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Thomas Milic
1st 12:39Penalty
2nd 0:25Kristian Reichel (1–1)high · 10 ft · beat Adam Scheel
2nd 1:53Penalty
2nd 8:56Penalty
2nd 9:58Penalty
2nd 18:33Penalty
2nd 18:33Penalty
3rd 2:26Penalty
3rd 5:00Penalty
3rd 5:44Penalty
3rd 9:03Domenick Fensore (2–1)low · 22 ft · beat Thomas Milic