Texas Stars at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Texas Stars

7:4

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

TEXIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

73%27%

xG: 3.32.8
High danger: 93
Chances: 148
Shots: 2732

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal32

14Scoring chances8

9High-danger chances3

3.26Expected goals2.78

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–5	5–1	2–0	1.0–0.2
2nd	10–9	7–3	6–0	1.6–0.8
3rd	6–18	2–4	1–3	0.6–1.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	6	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.001 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 28
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.78
GSAx: -1.22

Peyton Jones

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 14
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.47
GSAx: -1.53

Zane McIntyre

Shots faced: 9
Saves: 6
Allowed: 3
xGA: 0.79
GSAx: -2.21

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:09Christian Kyrou (1–0)low · 52 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
1st 11:38Curtis McKenzie (2–0)medium · 24 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
1st 13:50Riley Damiani (3–0)low · 25 ft · beat Zane McIntyre
1st 17:32Oskar Bäck (4–0)high · 23 ft · beat Peyton Jones
2nd 3:18Riley Damiani (5–0)low · 30 ft · beat Peyton Jones
2nd 4:32Logan Stankoven (6–0)high · 11 ft · beat Peyton Jones
2nd 14:08Penalty
2nd 15:50Kyle McDonald (7–0)5v4 · high · 8 ft · beat Peyton Jones
2nd 17:23Adam Beckman (7–1)medium · 14 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 9:14Kevin Conley (7–2)medium · 16 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 10:29Gavin Hain (7–3)high · 9 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
3rd 12:13Penalty
3rd 17:46Adam Beckman (7–4)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Rémi Poirier