Laval Rocket at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Laval Rocket

2:4

Final

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

LAVSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

40%60%

xG: 1.92.2
High danger: 12
Chances: 69
Shots: 3126

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineLAV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal26

6Scoring chances9

1High-danger chances2

1.86Expected goals2.23

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–6	3–2	1–1	0.7–0.5
2nd	8–11	3–3	0–0	0.6–0.9
3rd	12–9	0–4	0–1	0.5–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LAV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Hugo Alnefelt

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 29
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.86
GSAx: -0.14

Jakub Dobeš

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 22
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.23
GSAx: -1.77

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:48Felix Robert (0–1)low · 21 ft · beat Jakub Dobeš
1st 7:01Gabriel Fortier (0–2)medium · 24 ft · beat Jakub Dobeš
1st 13:48William Trudeau (1–2)medium · 29 ft · beat Hugo Alnefelt
2nd 1:57Sean Day (1–3)low · 10 ft · beat Jakub Dobeš
2nd 7:02Penalty
2nd 9:33Penalty
2nd 12:01Penalty
2nd 19:12Philippe Maillet (2–3)medium · 18 ft · beat Hugo Alnefelt
3rd 10:47Penalty
3rd 10:47Penalty
3rd 19:45Cole Koepke (2–4)empty net · medium · 14 ft · beat Jakub Dobeš