Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

4:3

Final

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

WBSLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

22%78%

xG: 1.83.3
High danger: 14
Chances: 510
Shots: 2540

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LV above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal40

5Scoring chances10

1High-danger chances4

1.83Expected goals3.25

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–9	1–1	0–0	0.7–0.7
2nd	11–14	2–5	1–1	0.8–1.3
3rd	4–17	2–4	0–3	0.4–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LV	1	18:31 of the 3rd	1:29	1:29	+0.035 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Hellberg

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 37
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.25
GSAx: +0.25

Felix Sandström

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 21
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.83
GSAx: -2.17

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:08Penalty
1st 3:57Jesse Puljujärvi (1–0)5v4 · medium · 28 ft · beat Felix Sandström
1st 10:12Marc Johnstone (2–0)low · 23 ft · beat Felix Sandström
1st 16:42Sam Poulin (3–0)low · 21 ft · beat Felix Sandström
1st 18:04Penalty
1st 18:04Penalty
2nd 9:13Garrett Wilson (3–1)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
2nd 15:37Penalty
2nd 15:37Penalty
2nd 15:37Penalty
2nd 15:37Penalty
2nd 19:02Penalty
2nd 19:32Bobby Brink (3–2)5v4 · medium · 29 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
3rd 7:00Penalty
3rd 8:13Adam Brooks (3–3)5v4 · high · 26 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
3rd 18:31Sam Poulin (4–3)medium · 24 ft · beat Felix Sandström